Paramount's promises to Hollywood for WBD deal spark ongoing skepticism

Hollywood is set for a significant shift in its theatrical release schedule as Paramount’s CEO David Ellison commits to releasing a new film approximately every 11 days following a deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. This move comes after Ellison reached an agreement with a group of state attorneys general, effectively clearing antitrust hurdles for the planned merger of two of the industry’s storied studios.

Under the terms of the settlement, the newly combined company will be required to launch at least 30 films annually in 2027 and 2028, with the commitment rising to at least 32 films per year from 2029 through 2031. According to industry data provider Rentrak, the merged entity currently has 35 films set for release next year. Paramount faces steep penalties - $30 million per unreleased film, with 90% going to film workers and 10% to the National Association of Attorneys General - if it fails to meet these quotas.

The agreement also stipulates that a significant portion of these films must be widely distributed: at least 20 films in each of the first two years after closing must open on more than 2,000 screens, increasing to 21 such releases in each of the following three years. Furthermore, at least 20% of the annual slate must be “tentpole” films with production budgets over $50 million.

Industry reaction to the merger and its theatrical output guarantees has been mixed. Large exhibitors like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal have welcomed the commitment, which Ellison first publicized at CinemaCon in April, as a way to restore a robust pipeline of movies that has been lacking since the COVID-19 pandemic. Cinema United, representing theater owners, has also backed the deal after initial opposition, stating that the settlement achieved many of its objectives.

However, some smaller theater operators remain skeptical. Several executives, speaking anonymously to CNBC, voiced concerns that the combination of Paramount and Warner Bros. could reduce the number of studios and enhance the new entity’s leverage over film rental fees and release terms. The commitment to at least 30 films per year is seen by some, including Santikos Theaters COO Rob Lehman, as a “win” in the near term, but there are fears this output could fall dramatically after the five-year window expires, especially as Paramount deals with an expected $79 billion debt load.

Analysts also question whether hitting the required number of releases is enough. Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Rentrak, notes that the market will judge success on the caliber, variety, and box office performance of these films, not just their volume. Release scheduling poses logistical challenges as well, with the risk of cannibalizing ticket sales if major titles are launched too closely together. The 2027 slate already features six weekends with overlapping major releases, including franchise entries like Sonic, Godzilla, Minecraft, Lord of the Rings, and DC superheroes.

Questions remain about what happens once the five-year release mandate expires and whether these commitments will truly stimulate a sustained revival in theatrical exhibition, especially for smaller operators. The coming years will demonstrate whether Paramount and Warner Bros. can not only meet their quotas, but also deliver films that audiences want to see and that reinvigorate the moviegoing ecosystem.