4/4/2025, 5:46:03 pm

One of the Fed's top recession alarms sends 2008-style signal

A key Fed recession indicator has deteriorated rapidly, similar to 2008, driven by Trump's tariffs. The spread between 3-month T-bills and their 18-month yield hit -113 basis points, its most negative since October. JPMorgan raised U.S. and global recession risk to 60% from 40%. Investors expect 100 basis points of Fed cuts by December and 25 more in Q1 2026.